Leadership
Summer '25 Leadership Series
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Alternatives and Discipline Emerge as Keys in Volatile Markets
Our Connect Money Summer Leadership Series highlighted a clear consensus: in today’s structurally...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Proactive Hedging in a Volatile Rates Environment
In the fourteenth and final edition of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, market experts sha...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Debt Risks, Market Shifts, and the Confidence Factor
In the thirteenth edition of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, top industry voices weigh in...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Industry Leaders Weigh Fed Surprises and Market Froth
In the twelfth installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, top executives offered cand...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – How Tariffs and Treasury Volatility Are Shaping Investment Strategy
In the eleventh installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, senior executives from acr...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Experts Share Outlook, Risks, and Opportunities
In the tenth installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, a group of industry leaders s...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Global Leadership, Market Risks, and Narratives That Could Flip
In the ninth installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, industry leaders explore whet...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Global Policy Divergence, Debt Risks Take Center Stage
In the eighth installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, industry leaders tackle some...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Treasury Volatility and Fed Uncertainty Define Market Outlook
In the seventh installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, industry experts weighed ho...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Experts Tackle Volatility and Trade Policy
In the sixth installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, industry experts shared their...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Key Investment Narratives for 2025–2026
In the fifth installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, industry leaders examined key...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Experts Debate U.S. Debt Sustainability and Market Leadership
In the fourth installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, experts tackled one of the m...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Global Monetary Policy Divergence Reshapes Allocation Strategies
In the third installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, investment leaders share how ...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Navigating Financing Strategies Amid Interest Rate Volatility
In the second installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, executives share their persp...Read more
2025 Summer Leadership Series – Market Volatility and Tariffs Implications
This summer, Connect Money is turning to the voices of respected industry leaders to assess what li...Read moreTreasury & Rates
A weekly look at U.S. Treasury yields
Let’s Do the “Mini” Twist
Executive Summary The Treasury Department’s decision to double long-end bond buybacks produced...Read more
Bank Capital’s Riskiest Bonds Are Pricing Like the Safest
Executive Summary Additional Tier 1, or AT1, bank bonds are trading at near-historic tight sprea...Read more
U.S.-Japan Yen Intervention Puts Global Interest Rates in Focus
Executive Summary Japan and the United States recently jointly intervened to support the yen aft...Read more
Fed Credibility Is Now the Market’s Biggest Trade
Executive Summary Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s communication strategy was put to a s...Read more
EM Debt Emerges as Top Relative-Value Play for Yield
Executive Summary Emerging market debt is regaining momentum after a three-year capital flight, ...Read more
Is the Market Mispricing the Rate Hike Probability?
Executive Summary Inflation expectations have fallen sharply following last week's benign CPI an...Read more
Flipping the Script on “Safe” Haven Bonds
Executive Summary The war in Iran has scrambled traditional views of safety in fixed income, pus...Read more
Inside SpaceX’s Rocky $25B Debt Debut
Executive Summary SpaceX's record-breaking $25 billion investment-grade bond offering was initia...Read more
The Bond Market Is Taking the Fed’s Hawkish Cue
Executive Summary Kevin Warsh’s arrival as Fed chair is reinforcing a more hawkish tone and a ...Read more
The Fed Just Changed Its Personality
Executive summary Kevin Warsh’s first policy decision as Fed chair delivered a hawkish surpris...Read more
Why Higher Treasury Yields Haven’t Broken Risk Assets Yet
Executive Summary Despite a significant repricing of U.S. Treasury yields in recent weeks, equit...Read more
The Yield Is Real but So Is the Risk Premium You Are Being Asked to Accept
Executive Summary U.S. high yield bonds are posting the highest trailing one-year yields among m...Read more
Rising Real Yields Reshape Treasury Market Outlook
Executive Summary U.S. Treasury yields have surged to multi-year highs, driven not by inflation ...Read more
Layering the Curve: Short Duration Today, Receive Fixed Tomorrow
Executive Summary The 10‑year SOFR swap rate has moved from roughly 3.5% before the Iran war t...Read more
Bond Market Is Sending a Warning the Fed Cannot Ignore Much Longer
Executive Summary The U.S. bond market is flashing its most sustained inflation warning since 20...Read more
Hot Inflation Data Sparks Hawkish Fed Repricing Across Futures Curve
Executive Summary Hotter inflation data and a hawkish shift in rate expectations are forci...Read more
Who Blinks First: A Patient Fed or a Jittery Bond Market?
Executive Summary U.S. Treasury traders are steadily pricing in a stickier inflation probl...Read more
Why Expected Real Rates May Turn Deeply Negative
Executive Summary War‑related disruptions and a fragile peace deal with Iran are embeddi...Read more
When “Safe” Isn’t So Safe: How the Iran War Scrambled the Bond Market Playbook
Executive Summary The fixed-income playbook is being challenged as geopolitical tensions c...Read more
As SOFR Eases, Funds Rate Refuses to Follow
Executive Summary The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) remains pinned at 3.64...Read more
Why Rates Volatility Feels Different This Time
Executive Summary Treasury markets are shifting from an orderly repricing to a more f...Read more
Liquidity, Not Flows, Driving Unusual Treasury Sell-Off Dynamics
Executive Summary U.S. Treasury markets are undergoing a repricing that is unusually techn...Read more
War Shock, Yield Repricing and Central Bank Pauses That No Longer Feel Dovish
Executive Summary Central banks are in a reluctant holding pattern. The Fed, BoE...Read more
Private Credit’s First Cracks Are Testing Risk Appetite
Executive Summary Investors nursing losses from private credit’s “mini crise...Read more
Bond Market Revisits Familiar Wartime Playbook with Very Different Oil Backdrop
Executive Summary Investors have seen this movie before: rising geopolitical ten...Read more
Traders Shorting Long Treasuries Even as Inflation Forecasts Ease
The bond market’s message is becoming harder to dismiss. While many economists continue to projec...Read more
Why the U.S. 10-Year Yield Keeps Snapping Back to “Neutral”
Executive Summary The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has spent most of the past three years o...Read more
U.S. Treasuries Still “Safe” But No Longer Truly Risk-Free
Executive Summary With Treasury yield spreads compressed versus German Bunds and U.K. Gilt...Read more
Markets May Need to Confront a 3% Inflation Reality
Executive Summary U.S. inflation has hovered near 3% for more than two years, suggesting t...Read more
Warsh Nomination Signals Potential Regime Shift, New Curve Playbook
Executive Summary: Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Fe...Read more
Trump’s $200B MBS Push Sets Up Volatility, Not Lasting Affordability
President Trump’s directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion of ...Read more
Japan’s Bond Shock Is a Quiet Headwind for Lower U.S. Rates
Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have surged to multi‑decade highs as the Bank of Japan (BOJ...Read more
Hidden Leverage: Why the Treasury Market’s Quiet Stability May Be Deceptive
Heightened volatility in short-term interest rates, or a sudden squeeze in repo financing, could pr...Read more
Duration Divergence: Bond Markets Signal Disbelief in the Fed’s Inflation Narrative
While the Federal Reserve maintains direct control over the front end of the yield curve,...Read more
Floating Rates, Firm Reserves: How the Fed Is Quietly Resetting the Front End
After two years of aggressive tightening and volatile funding conditions, the Federal Reserve appea...Read more
Rate Volatility Looks Mismatched to the Fed and Macro Risks Ahead
US interest rate volatility is sitting near multi‑year lows even as policy and macro risks accumu...Read more
Bond Return Forecasting Enters New Era of Complexity
Developing forward-looking return expectations for bonds has traditionally been one of the more str...Read more
Bond Market’s “Soft Landing” Trade Looks Stretched as Long-End Yields Defy Inflation Math
The U.S. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) curve is sending conflicting messages about the pa...Read more
AI’s Capital Crunch Hits the Bond Market
Equity markets may be soaring amid AI optimism, but the bond market is flashing early warning signs...Read more
Is the Bond Market Ignoring America’s Debt Time Bomb?
The U.S. government’s mounting debt burden is no longer up for debate — it’s the trajectory t...Read more
Fed to Halt Balance Sheet Shrinkage as Market Liquidity Tightens
The Federal Reserve announced at its meeting last week that it will halt the runoff of its balance ...Read more
U.S. Long-End Yields Diverge as Market Bets on Easing Supply Pressure
A key narrative that has shaped the U.S. fixed income markets over the past week centers on the un...Read more
HYG’s Alarming Break: A Silent Storm Brewing in Credit Markets
The U.S. credit market just flashed a warning that many equity investors are still ignoring. The iS...Read more
A Recession Could Turn Treasury Bulls into Bears as Fiscal Risk, Inflation Expectations Loom
A recession typically spells relief for bond investors—yields fall as inflation cools and central...Read more
Treasury’s Short-Term Debt Strategy Raises New Liquidity and Cost Risks
There has been a growing reliance on short-term bills to finance record levels of issuance by the U...Read more
Corporate Bonds Outpace Broader Fixed Income as Curve Dynamics Favor Credit
In a year marked by volatility across global fixed-income markets, corporate bonds have emerged as ...Read more
Front End Anchored, Long End Holds Swing Vote
Until or unless we get a meaningful inflation hiccup, the front end should remain tightly tethered ...Read more
Yields Likely to Dip Further Before Rising Again as Inflation Risks Reassert
Following weeks of weak labor market data, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-...Read more
Global Long-End Yields Surge as Fiscal Risks Drive Structural Repricing
Global bond markets are now confronting a structural repricing of fiscal risk, with the long end of...Read more
Political Risk Premium Fuels Treasury Curve Steepening
The attempted firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump has injected a new la...Read more
NOB Spread Steepening Signals Structural Reset in Long-End Rates
The widening of the NOB spread—the relative steepening of the 30-year yield over the 10-year yiel...Read more
Front-End Inflation Pricing at Odds with Rate-Cut Bets Signals Tactical Breakeven Opportunity
Market-implied signals for U.S. inflation and interest rates are now diverging to a degree rarely s...Read more
Bond Market Bets on Fed Pivot as Treasury Yields Slip Across Curve
U.S. Treasury yields have fallen sharply across the curve, with the 2-year to 10-year maturities se...Read more
Expansion of Treasury Buyback Program Prompts Debate Over YCC Implications
The U.S. Treasury’s July 2025 quarterly refunding announcement maintained the status quo on coupo...Read more
Navigating a Bond Market at a Crossroads
The current bond market presents a delicate balancing act between opportunity and risk. Despite a l...Read more
Powell Departure Scenario: Curve Steepens, Inflation Expectations Rise, and Volatility Spikes
If Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell were to step down or be removed—particularly under politicall...Read more
Credit Markets Face Growing Liquidity Pressures Despite Resilient Spreads
Credit markets have demonstrated impressive resilience in recent years, repeatedly rebounding from ...Read more
Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasuries Shows Early Signs of Strain
The April Treasury International Capital (TIC) data warrant close monitoring, as foreign demand for...Read more
Fed Proposal to Ease eSLR Could Be Tailwind for Treasury Market Liquidity
The Federal Reserve’s decision last week to advance a long-anticipated proposal to ease the enhan...Read more
Fed Chair Powell Signals Patience as Fed Officials Float July Cuts
It’s been exactly one week since Fed Chair Jay Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s wait-and...Read more
Limited Downside for Yields Without Deeper Fed Cuts
Since President Trump’s surprise overhaul of U.S. trade policy in April, speculation about the ec...Read more
After 40-Year Downtrend, Bond Yields May Be Set for a Multi-Decade Climb
Interest rate cycles often span decades, not just years, aligning with the broader economic trends ...Read more
Treasury Market Whipsaws as Long-End Yields Tell the Tale
U.S. Treasury yields have been whipsawed over the past two weeks, particularly at the long end of t...Read more
Bond Vigilantes Awaken as U.S. Fiscal Woes Roil Treasury Market
The market has spoken—and it’s not impressed. The so-called “Big, Beautiful Bill” may be su...Read more
Traversing the Fixed Income Maze: Treasuries, Credit, and Sovereigns
The fixed income landscape in 2025 is turbulent, driven by volatile U.S. Treasury yields, shifting ...Read more
U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics and De-Dollarization Risks
The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) recent meeting has sparked renewed speculation about the...Read more
The Fed Is Behind the Curve
In 2025, the U.S. economy is navigating a critical policy mismatch. The federal funds target range,...Read more
A Curve Steepener to Hedge Economic, Tariff Uncertainty
The U.S. Treasury market in 2025 is navigating a delicate balance, with tariff-induced volatility, ...Read more
Are US Treasuries Fading as the World’s Safest Asset?
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been viewed as the ultimate "safe" asset in global markets, but a...Read more
A Look at the Bond Market Through Convexity and Carry
The bond market, though often overshadowed by the stock market’s flashy headlines, is a far more ...Read more
US Treasuries Shaken by Rising Tariff Fears, Basis Trade Unraveling
The new U.S. tariff regime has upended market expectations and introduced meaningful new variables ...Read more