2025 Summer Leadership Series – Industry Leaders Weigh Fed Surprises and Market Froth 

In the twelfth installment of Connect Money’s 2025 Leadership Series, top executives offered candid views on what could be the year’s most surprising Federal Reserve move—and where market excesses may already be taking shape. 

Jade Miller, CEO of ADISA, Jake Heidkamp, Principal and Co-President of FactRight, Michael Underhill, Founder and CIO of Capital Innovations, John Swift, Managing Director and Head of Wealth Management at Rockfleet Financial Services Inc.; and Ben Jackson, Managing Director of Capital Formation, Leste Group each weighed in on potential Fed curveballs, from the pace of rate cuts to balance-sheet strategy, as well as areas of overheating across equities, credit, and alternatives. 

What would be the single biggest market surprise from the Fed this year? A cut too soon, or no cut at all?   

Jade Miller

Jade Miller, CEO, ADISA: At this point, to me, the bigger surprise would be if the Fed makes no cut at all. Six months ago, that answer might have been different given the focus on inflation, but today market sentiment, along with political pressure from the White House, seems to be strongly leaning toward a cut. In fact, it feels increasingly likely that the Fed will move in that direction, even if the economic case for it is still open to debate. 

Jake Heidkamp, Principal, Co-President, FactRight: as Jamie Dimon has noted in previous statements that we get an interest rate increase stemming from continued inflationary concerns. 

Jake Heidkamp

Are there areas of the market where you see signs of excess optimism, positioning, or froth?   

Michael Underhill

Michael Underhill, Founder and CIO, Capital Innovations: Let’s be honest: pockets of tech, especially second-tier AI adjacents, are getting euphoric. Investors are peeling back exposure there. Elsewhere, we’re watching bid-ask spreads in infrastructure sub-sectors — anything tightening too quickly deserves a second look. Excess optimism is fine — until it becomes consensus groupthink. 

John Swift, Managing Director, Head of Wealth Management, Rockfleet Financial Services Inc.: From our observations across private markets, I’m seeing concentration levels that exceed anything in my 20+ year career. According to recent data, venture capital has reached extremes I’ve never witnessed: 58% of global funding flowing to AI companies, with the Bay Area alone capturing 49% of global venture funding in Q1. 

John Swift

But the froth isn’t just about AI valuations—it’s about what appears to be a systematic abandonment of fundamental analysis. In our market observations, AI companies are commanding 20-30x ARR multiples while comparable non-AI businesses with proven revenue, customers, and growth trajectories struggle to achieve 5-8x at similar revenue levels. This seems less like market efficiency and more like thematic momentum. 

More concerning from a portfolio construction perspective: institutional investors who typically maintain rigorous analytical standards appear to be making allocation decisions faster than their own processes would normally allow. For wealth management clients, this creates both significant risks and compelling opportunities—avoiding the concentration trap while positioning for what seems like an inevitable reversion when fundamental analysis reasserts itself. 

Ben Jackson

Ben Jackson, Managing Director of Capital Formation, Leste Group: Leste spends its time on illiquid alternative investments like real estate and private equity. The real estate market has gone through a major adjustment since 2022, with a period of significantly lower transaction volume followed by downward price adjustments. Rather than seeing overoptimism and froth, we’re just now seeing some normalcy come back to the market as investors gain well deserved confidence in asset classes like multifamily, where equity has essentially been on the sideline for several years. Lenders were the first to come back, and they are enticing the equity with tighter spreads and competitive terms. On the ground, improved operating fundamentals and waning new supply across the multifamily sector provide reasonable justification for markets to stabilize further. 

Please visit the Insider page for our latest 2025 Summer Leadership series articles.   

Important Disclosures: Views expressed represent opinions of John Swift, Managing Director at Rockfleet Financial Services, Inc., are subject to change, and for educational purposes only. Rockfleet Financial Services, Inc. does not provide legal or tax advice; consult appropriate advisors. Municipal bonds involve risks including possible loss of principal, interest rate sensitivity, and liquidity challenges. Income may be subject to federal, state, local taxes, and AMT. Information on municipal securities available at emma.msrb.org. Rockfleet Financial Services, Inc. may receive compensation for municipal securities transactions, creating potential conflicts. Past performance does not guarantee future results.