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Evening Brief

U.S. consumer sentiment held nearly steady in October, while business surveys showed continued strong expansion and mounting price pressures, highlighting a divide between household financial concerns and corporate activity.

The University of Michigan’s final sentiment index rose to 48.0 from its preliminary reading of 46.3, essentially unchanged from September’s 48.1. The index remained 10% below a year earlier and 15% below February, before the Iran conflict began.

The current economic conditions index fell to 46.7 from September’s 50.9, despite an upward revision from its initial estimate.

Buying conditions for durable goods plunged 18%, reflecting higher interest rates and affordability concerns, Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said.

“Purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy,” Hsu said.

The expectations index improved to 48.8 from 46.3 in September. Year-ahead business expectations increased approximately 14%, but remained 16% below their year-earlier level.

Inflation expectations edged higher. Consumers anticipated 4.7% inflation over the next year, compared with 4.6% in September, and 3.5% over the longer term, up from 3.4%.

Separately, S&P Global’s preliminary composite purchasing managers index declined to 57.6 from 58.4, signaling slower but still robust private-sector expansion. Readings above 50 indicate growth.

Manufacturing PMI increased to 56.0 from 55.9, while services PMI eased to 57.9 from 58.8.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the output readings were consistent with approximately 5% annualized GDP growth. That estimate is a survey-based signal rather than an official growth reading.

Employment increased at the second-fastest pace in more than four years as businesses added capacity.

However, selling prices rose at their fastest rate since August 2022 as companies passed higher costs to customers.

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