Treasury & Rates
As SOFR Eases, Funds Rate Refuses to Follow
Executive Summary The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) remains pinned at 3.64...Read more
Why Rates Volatility Feels Different This Time
Executive Summary Treasury markets are shifting from an orderly repricing to a more f...Read more
Liquidity, Not Flows, Driving Unusual Treasury Sell-Off Dynamics
Executive Summary U.S. Treasury markets are undergoing a repricing that is unusually techn...Read more
War Shock, Yield Repricing and Central Bank Pauses That No Longer Feel Dovish
Executive Summary Central banks are in a reluctant holding pattern. The Fed, BoE...Read more
Private Credit’s First Cracks Are Testing Risk Appetite
Executive Summary Investors nursing losses from private credit’s “mini crise...Read more
Bond Market Revisits Familiar Wartime Playbook with Very Different Oil Backdrop
Executive Summary Investors have seen this movie before: rising geopolitical ten...Read more
Traders Shorting Long Treasuries Even as Inflation Forecasts Ease
The bond market’s message is becoming harder to dismiss. While many economists continue to projec...Read more
Why the U.S. 10-Year Yield Keeps Snapping Back to “Neutral”
Executive Summary The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has spent most of the past three years o...Read more
U.S. Treasuries Still “Safe” But No Longer Truly Risk-Free
Executive Summary With Treasury yield spreads compressed versus German Bunds and U.K. Gilt...Read more
Markets May Need to Confront a 3% Inflation Reality
Executive Summary U.S. inflation has hovered near 3% for more than two years, suggesting t...Read more
Warsh Nomination Signals Potential Regime Shift, New Curve Playbook
Executive Summary: Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Fe...Read more
Trump’s $200B MBS Push Sets Up Volatility, Not Lasting Affordability
President Trump’s directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion of ...Read more
Japan’s Bond Shock Is a Quiet Headwind for Lower U.S. Rates
Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have surged to multi‑decade highs as the Bank of Japan (BOJ...Read more
Hidden Leverage: Why the Treasury Market’s Quiet Stability May Be Deceptive
Heightened volatility in short-term interest rates, or a sudden squeeze in repo financing, could pr...Read more
Duration Divergence: Bond Markets Signal Disbelief in the Fed’s Inflation Narrative
While the Federal Reserve maintains direct control over the front end of the yield curve,...Read more
Floating Rates, Firm Reserves: How the Fed Is Quietly Resetting the Front End
After two years of aggressive tightening and volatile funding conditions, the Federal Reserve appea...Read more
Rate Volatility Looks Mismatched to the Fed and Macro Risks Ahead
US interest rate volatility is sitting near multi‑year lows even as policy and macro risks accumu...Read more
Bond Return Forecasting Enters New Era of Complexity
Developing forward-looking return expectations for bonds has traditionally been one of the more str...Read more
Bond Market’s “Soft Landing” Trade Looks Stretched as Long-End Yields Defy Inflation Math
The U.S. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) curve is sending conflicting messages about the pa...Read more
AI’s Capital Crunch Hits the Bond Market
Equity markets may be soaring amid AI optimism, but the bond market is flashing early warning signs...Read more
Is the Bond Market Ignoring America’s Debt Time Bomb?
The U.S. government’s mounting debt burden is no longer up for debate — it’s the trajectory t...Read more
Fed to Halt Balance Sheet Shrinkage as Market Liquidity Tightens
The Federal Reserve announced at its meeting last week that it will halt the runoff of its balance ...Read more
U.S. Long-End Yields Diverge as Market Bets on Easing Supply Pressure
A key narrative that has shaped the U.S. fixed income markets over the past week centers on the un...Read more
HYG’s Alarming Break: A Silent Storm Brewing in Credit Markets
The U.S. credit market just flashed a warning that many equity investors are still ignoring. The iS...Read more
A Recession Could Turn Treasury Bulls into Bears as Fiscal Risk, Inflation Expectations Loom
A recession typically spells relief for bond investors—yields fall as inflation cools and central...Read more
Treasury’s Short-Term Debt Strategy Raises New Liquidity and Cost Risks
There has been a growing reliance on short-term bills to finance record levels of issuance by the U...Read more
Corporate Bonds Outpace Broader Fixed Income as Curve Dynamics Favor Credit
In a year marked by volatility across global fixed-income markets, corporate bonds have emerged as ...Read more
Front End Anchored, Long End Holds Swing Vote
Until or unless we get a meaningful inflation hiccup, the front end should remain tightly tethered ...Read more
Yields Likely to Dip Further Before Rising Again as Inflation Risks Reassert
Following weeks of weak labor market data, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected quarter-...Read more
Global Long-End Yields Surge as Fiscal Risks Drive Structural Repricing
Global bond markets are now confronting a structural repricing of fiscal risk, with the long end of...Read more
Political Risk Premium Fuels Treasury Curve Steepening
The attempted firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump has injected a new la...Read more
NOB Spread Steepening Signals Structural Reset in Long-End Rates
The widening of the NOB spread—the relative steepening of the 30-year yield over the 10-year yiel...Read more
Front-End Inflation Pricing at Odds with Rate-Cut Bets Signals Tactical Breakeven Opportunity
Market-implied signals for U.S. inflation and interest rates are now diverging to a degree rarely s...Read more
Bond Market Bets on Fed Pivot as Treasury Yields Slip Across Curve
U.S. Treasury yields have fallen sharply across the curve, with the 2-year to 10-year maturities se...Read more
Expansion of Treasury Buyback Program Prompts Debate Over YCC Implications
The U.S. Treasury’s July 2025 quarterly refunding announcement maintained the status quo on coupo...Read more
Navigating a Bond Market at a Crossroads
The current bond market presents a delicate balancing act between opportunity and risk. Despite a l...Read more
Powell Departure Scenario: Curve Steepens, Inflation Expectations Rise, and Volatility Spikes
If Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell were to step down or be removed—particularly under politicall...Read more
Credit Markets Face Growing Liquidity Pressures Despite Resilient Spreads
Credit markets have demonstrated impressive resilience in recent years, repeatedly rebounding from ...Read more
Foreign Demand for U.S. Treasuries Shows Early Signs of Strain
The April Treasury International Capital (TIC) data warrant close monitoring, as foreign demand for...Read more
Fed Proposal to Ease eSLR Could Be Tailwind for Treasury Market Liquidity
The Federal Reserve’s decision last week to advance a long-anticipated proposal to ease the enhan...Read more
Fed Chair Powell Signals Patience as Fed Officials Float July Cuts
It’s been exactly one week since Fed Chair Jay Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s wait-and...Read more
Limited Downside for Yields Without Deeper Fed Cuts
Since President Trump’s surprise overhaul of U.S. trade policy in April, speculation about the ec...Read more
After 40-Year Downtrend, Bond Yields May Be Set for a Multi-Decade Climb
Interest rate cycles often span decades, not just years, aligning with the broader economic trends ...Read more
Treasury Market Whipsaws as Long-End Yields Tell the Tale
U.S. Treasury yields have been whipsawed over the past two weeks, particularly at the long end of t...Read more
Bond Vigilantes Awaken as U.S. Fiscal Woes Roil Treasury Market
The market has spoken—and it’s not impressed. The so-called “Big, Beautiful Bill” may be su...Read more
Traversing the Fixed Income Maze: Treasuries, Credit, and Sovereigns
The fixed income landscape in 2025 is turbulent, driven by volatile U.S. Treasury yields, shifting ...Read more
U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics and De-Dollarization Risks
The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) recent meeting has sparked renewed speculation about the...Read more
The Fed Is Behind the Curve
In 2025, the U.S. economy is navigating a critical policy mismatch. The federal funds target range,...Read more
A Curve Steepener to Hedge Economic, Tariff Uncertainty
The U.S. Treasury market in 2025 is navigating a delicate balance, with tariff-induced volatility, ...Read more
Are US Treasuries Fading as the World’s Safest Asset?
For decades, U.S. Treasuries have been viewed as the ultimate "safe" asset in global markets, but a...Read more
A Look at the Bond Market Through Convexity and Carry
The bond market, though often overshadowed by the stock market’s flashy headlines, is a far more ...Read more
US Treasuries Shaken by Rising Tariff Fears, Basis Trade Unraveling
The new U.S. tariff regime has upended market expectations and introduced meaningful new variables ...Read more