Claims Edge Higher as Growth Gauges Soften, PMI Rebounds — Evening Brief – 04.23.26
The markets got another dose of mixed macro data on Thursday, with jobless claims still signaling a steady labor backdrop even as broader activity measures softened and April PMIs hinted at a modest pickup.
Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 18 rose by 6,000 to 214,000, slightly above the 211,000 consensus and the prior week’s 208,000 (revised from 207,000), according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The four‑week moving average ticked up to 210,750 from 210,000 (revised from 209,750), while continuing claims for the week ended April 11 edged higher to 1.821 million versus 1.820 million expected and 1.809 million previously (revised from 1.818 million).
The insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%. On an unadjusted basis, actual initial claims fell to 205,306, down 9,736 week over week, smaller than the decline implied by seasonal factors.
Broader activity data were more downbeat. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index slipped to -0.20 in March from +0.03 in February (revised from -0.11), with three of four indicator categories making negative contributions. The three‑month average eased to -0.03 from +0.03, suggesting growth modestly below trend, even as the CFNAI Diffusion Index improved to -0.04 from -0.08. Production‑related indicators subtracted 0.20, while sales, orders and inventories and personal consumption and housing were marginal drags; employment contributed +0.02.
In contrast, the S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI rose to 52.0 in April, above the 50.5 consensus and 50.3 March reading, a three‑month high. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.0 (vs. 52.5 expected and 52.3 prior), while Services PMI improved to 51.3 from 49.8, beating the 50.0 consensus.
“Over the past three months, we have seen the weakest expansion of output recorded since the start of 2024, with the war in the Middle East squarely to blame,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Williamson noted that manufacturing’s improvement partly reflects “panic” and “emergency” buying ahead of expected price hikes and supply disruptions, echoing pandemic‑era behavior rather than a clean demand surge.