Manufacturing Picks Up in NY, Trade Prices Flash Inflation Signal — Evening Brief – 04.15.26

Manufacturing activity in New York State strengthened in April, with the Empire State Manufacturing Index rising 11 points to 11.0, beating the -2.0 consensus and up from -0.20 in March, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.  

The new orders index jumped to 19.3 from 6.4, and shipments climbed to 20.2 from -6.9, signaling a solid pickup in demand and output. Inventories edged down to 5.1 from 6.9. Price pressures, however, firmed: prices paid rose sharply to 51.0 from 36.6, while prices received held near prior levels at 21.8 versus 21.4. The number of employees index improved to 9.8 from 5.8, indicating continued hiring momentum. 

“New orders and shipments increased significantly, and employment expanded. However, input price increases accelerated, supply availability is expected to worsen, and firms became less optimistic about the outlook,” said Richard Deitz, economic research advisor at the New York Fed. 

Forward-looking sentiment softened. The index for future business conditions fell 11 points to 19.6, suggesting firms are “less optimistic about the outlook,” even as they still expect new orders, shipments, and employment to increase in the months ahead. 

Separately, U.S. trade price data showed export prices rising faster than import prices in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Import prices increased 0.8% month-over-month, below the +2.1% consensus, while export prices gained 1.6%, versus +1.7% expected.  

Year over year, import prices rose 2.2% and export prices jumped 5.6%, the largest 12‑month increase since November 2022. Fuel, particularly petroleum, drove import gains, while higher prices for soybeans, fruit, and meat lifted agricultural export prices.