Jobs Hold Steady, Philly Fed Surges — Evening Brief – 06.18.26

Initial jobless claims for the week ended June 13 fell 4,000 to 226,000, coming in roughly in line with the 225,000 consensus and down from a revised 230,000 the prior week. The four-week moving average ticked up modestly to 223,250, an increase of 4,000 from the prior week’s revised average.

Continuing claims for the week ended June 6 came in at 1.810 million, slightly above the 1.800 million consensus and up from a revised 1.786 million the prior week. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%, unchanged from the week before. On an unadjusted basis, actual initial claims under state programs totaled 219,509 — a decrease of 9,446 from the prior week, outpacing the seasonal adjustment model’s expected decline of 5,753.

Manufacturing Activity Rebounds

Separately, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey rose to 10.3 in June from -0.4 in May, topping economists’ expectations of 10.0 and signaling renewed expansion in the region’s factory sector.

The rebound was broad-based. New orders jumped to 27.3 from -1.7 in May, while the employment index turned positive at 7.9 after registering -2.8 the previous month. Capital expenditures also strengthened, rising to 41.2 from 30.9.

Price pressures remained elevated, with the prices paid index climbing to 53.2 from 47.9 in May.

Despite a modest decline in expectations for future activity, manufacturers remained optimistic. The survey’s index for general business conditions over the next six months stood at 50.2, indicating firms continue to anticipate growth through year-end.