Jobless Claims Stay Low as NY and Philadelphia Manufacturing Snap Back — Evening Brief – 01.15.26
Fresh labor and manufacturing data point to an economy that remains resilient at the start of the year. Weekly jobless claims moved lower than expected, underscoring continued firmness in the labor market, while January readings from the New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys showed a notable improvement in activity and sentiment.
Initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 198,000 for the week ended Jan. 10, undershooting the 215,000 consensus and down from a revised 207,000 in the prior week, keeping layoffs at historically low levels. The four-week moving average declined to 205,000, its lowest reading since late January 2024, signaling underlying labor market strength rather than one-off volatility.
Continuing claims slipped to 1.884 million for the week ended Jan. 3, below expectations of 1.890 million, while the insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%, underscoring that displaced workers are still finding jobs relatively quickly. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims rose by 31,984 to 330,684, but that increase was smaller than seasonal factors anticipated, suggesting less seasonal strain than usual.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 7.7 in January, beating the 1.0 consensus and rebounding from a revised -3.7 in December as new orders and shipments turned meaningfully positive. Selling prices rose at the slowest pace in nearly a year, inventories edged down, and firms remained cautiously optimistic, with the index for future business conditions at 30.3 and expectations for stronger orders and shipments over the next six months.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index also surprised to the upside, improving to 12.6 in January from -8.8, with new orders strengthening even as current employment and prices paid eased modestly. Forward-looking measures stayed in expansionary territory, with future general activity at 25.5 and hiring and prices still expected to increase, indicating manufacturers see growth continuing, though with somewhat less exuberance than late last year.