Job Openings Hold Steady, Quits Hit 4½-Year Low as Hiring Momentum Slows — Evening Brief – 12.09.25
U.S. job openings ticked up in October even as hiring momentum softened and worker confidence waned, underscoring a labor market that remains resilient but continues to cool beneath the surface. The number of openings rose slightly to 7.670 million from 7.658 million in September, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
September’s figure — delayed due to reporting disruptions from the recent government shutdown — beat expectations at 7.658 million, well above the 7.200 million consensus and August’s 7.227 million reading.
But while demand for workers remains historically elevated, the pace of hiring continues to slow. Hires declined to 5.149 million in October from 5.367 million the prior month, with the hiring rate holding at 3.2%.
“The October JOLTS data points to the same story we’ve seen playing out in the labor market: low hiring, but low firings as well,” Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, told Connect Money. “The good news is that the hiring situation, while relatively weak, doesn’t seem to have gotten worse. Layoffs did pick up a bit, but the layoff rate remains low, below what we saw pre-pandemic in 2019.”
Total separations — including quits, layoffs, and other exits — eased to 5.050 million, driven by declines in health care and federal government sectors. The quits rate fell to 1.8%, its lowest since May 2020, signaling reduced confidence in job mobility. The layoffs rate held near a historically low 1.2%.
“Quits did fall, indicating that the workers are reluctant to leave their jobs as its harder to find another one, underlining the fact that the labor market is still cooling off – and that’s going to push the Fed to continue cutting rates,” Varghese said.
The data, arriving just ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC announcement, is unlikely to shift near-term policy expectations — but it reinforces the view that any easing cycle will be measured, not rapid.
Separately, ADP’s NER Pulse showed private-sector job gains slowing sharply, averaging 4,750 per week in the four weeks ending Nov. 22 — down from 13,500 per week in the prior period — an additional sign of gradually softening labor demand heading into year-end.