Hiring Steady, Spending Resilient — Evening Brief – 04.01.26
Latest data from ADP and the U.S. Census Bureau point to steady job creation, firm wage growth for job changers, and solid retail sales momentum heading into spring.
Private-sector employment increased by 62,000 jobs in March, ahead of the 40,000 consensus and only slightly below February’s revised 66,000 gain. Pay for job-stayers rose 4.5% year over year, unchanged for the third straight month, while pay gains for job-changers accelerated to 6.6%.
The ADP National Employment Report, based on anonymized weekly payroll data from more than 26 million private-sector workers, offers an independent read on labor conditions. “Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. “In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers.”
Hiring remained relatively balanced across sectors, with goods-producing industries adding 30,000 jobs and service-providing industries contributing 32,000. Education and health services led with a 58,000-job increase. Regionally, gains were concentrated in the South (+101,000) and West (+16,000), while the Northeast (-29,000) and Midwest (-26,000) shed jobs.
On the demand side, retail sales rose 0.6% month over month in February to $738.4 billion, reversing a revised 0.1% decline the prior month and beating expectations for a 0.4% gain. Headline sales were up 3.7% from a year earlier. Retail trade sales climbed 0.6% on the month, with non-store retailers up 7.5% and food services and drinking places up 5.2% year over year.
Core retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.5%, topping the 0.3% consensus, while sales excluding gas and autos rose 0.4% versus a 0.2% forecast. Total sales from December 2025 through February 2026 were 3.1% higher than in the same period a year earlier, reinforcing the picture of a still-resilient consumer.