Existing Home Sales Fall in June as Record Prices Weigh on Demand — Evening Brief – 07.09.26

U.S. existing home sales pulled back in June even as prices climbed to a fresh record, underscoring the tension between limited supply, higher borrowing costs and still-solid household incomes. Sales fell 2.4% month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, short of the 4.20 million consensus forecast, the National Association of Realtors reported. May’s pace was revised up to 4.19 million from 4.17 million.

The median existing home price rose to $440,600 in June from $429,300 in May, the highest level on record. On a year-over-year basis, prices gained 1.8%, marking the 36th straight month of annual increases and highlighting how tight supply continues to support valuations.

“The back-and-forth in monthly home sales activity, driven by mild fluctuations in mortgage rates, shows how sensitive home buyers are to affordability conditions,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. He added that job gains—more than half a million since the beginning of the year—should help underpin housing demand.

NAR noted that wage growth has recently outpaced home price gains, offering some improvement in affordability. Even so, Yun warned that stalled growth in listings could hamper longer-term progress. Inventory stood at 1.56 million units in June, down 0.6% from May but up 1.3% from a year earlier. That equated to a 4.6‑month supply of unsold homes, slightly above May’s 4.5 months and unchanged from June 2025. The Housing Affordability Index slipped to 102.3 from 105.6 in May, though it improved from 95.5 a year earlier.

Separate labor-market data showed initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 215,000 for the week ended July 4, while the insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%. The figures continue to point to a stable jobs backdrop, suggesting Federal Reserve officials will remain squarely focused on pushing inflation down toward their 2% target rather than easing policy in response to housing.