Durable Goods Orders Surge in November as Manufacturing Signals Stabilize — Evening Brief – 01.26.26 

U.S. manufacturing data delivered a stronger-than-expected signal heading into year-end, with a sharp rebound in durable goods orders and improving regional factory indicators suggesting activity may be finding firmer footing despite a still-uneven macro backdrop. 

New orders for manufactured durable goods jumped 5.3% month over month in November to $323.8 billion, well above the 3.0% consensus and a decisive reversal from October’s decline, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%, while orders excluding defense surged 6.6%, underscoring broad-based improvement beneath the headline. 

Transportation equipment drove the gains, rising 15% ($15.3 billion) to $119.3 billion, extending a recovery that has now taken hold in three of the past four months. The strength points to renewed demand in capital-intensive sectors that had been a drag earlier in the cycle. 

Broader economic activity measures echoed the improvement. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported its National Activity Index climbing to -0.04 in November, from -0.42 previously, with the three-month average also improving. Production-related indicators swung meaningfully positive, while employment metrics remained a modest drag. 

Regional manufacturing data added to the constructive tone. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said its Texas Manufacturing Index rebounded sharply to -1.2 in January from -11.3, effectively signaling flat activity after a steep contraction. Key subcomponents—including production, shipments, capacity utilization, and new orders—all moved decisively into expansionary territory.