Consumers Grow More Confident on Jobs and Inflation, NY Fed — Evening Brief – 02.09.26
U.S. consumers are showing tentative signs of improved confidence around job security and price stability, even as concerns about credit availability persist, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. The January 2026 results suggest households are feeling slightly better about the near-term economic outlook, with lower perceived layoff risk and easing inflation expectations.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job over the next 12 months declined by 0.4 percentage point to 14.8%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. While still modestly above the trailing 12-month average, the drop signals improving confidence in labor market stability. At the same time, consumers reported a greater likelihood of voluntarily leaving their current jobs, with the mean probability rising 1.2 percentage points to 18.7%, a sign of increased labor market flexibility.
Earnings expectations also edged higher. Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.7%, suggesting modest optimism about wage growth.
Inflation concerns continued to ease. Median one-year inflation expectations fell 0.3 percentage point to 3.1%, while three- and five-year inflation expectations remained steady at 3.0%. The stabilization at longer horizons points to relatively anchored inflation views, even as near-term pressures appear to be cooling.
Household financial expectations were largely unchanged. Median expected household income growth dipped slightly to 2.9%, matching its trailing 12-month average, while expected nominal household spending growth held steady at 4.9%.
Credit conditions, however, remain a concern. The net share of respondents expecting it to become easier to obtain credit declined in January, indicating growing expectations of tighter lending standards. That said, consumers expressed slightly less anxiety about managing debt. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months fell 1.6 percentage points to 13.7%, only marginally above the trailing 12-month average.