Consumer Confidence Holds Steady as Housing Momentum Softens — Evening Brief – 04.28.26
U.S. consumer confidence ticked up in April, but underlying indicators painted a picture of cautious households and a cooling housing market. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 92.8 from a revised 92.2 in March, topping the 89.4 consensus forecast. The survey period ran from April 1–22, spanning a temporary two‑week ceasefire in the Middle East beginning April 8 and the subsequent rebound in U.S. equities.
“Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. The present situation index slipped 0.3 points to 123.8, while the expectations index gained 1.2 points to 72.2, still below the 80 level often associated with recession risk. The labor market differential—a measure of job sentiment—improved, with the share saying jobs are “plentiful” minus those calling them “hard to get” rising 1.4 percentage points to 7.5%.
Consumers grew slightly more hesitant about big‑ticket purchases over the next six months, continuing a shift from “yes” or “maybe” in February toward “no” in April, though the proportion saying “yes” remained comfortably above the alternatives.
Housing data showed modest price deceleration. The S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller 20‑city index slipped an adjusted -0.1% in February after a 0.2% gain in January, with more than half the tracked markets posting declines. On an unadjusted basis, prices rose 0.4%, leaving annual growth at 0.9%, down from 1.2% in January. Chicago led with a 5.0% year‑over‑year increase, followed by New York at 4.7% and Cleveland at 4.2%, while Denver lagged with a 2.2% drop.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index was flat on the month, up 1.7% year‑over‑year. Across the nine census divisions, monthly moves ranged from -1.1% in the Mountain region to +0.6% in the South Atlantic, with 12‑month changes spanning -0.7% in the Mountain division to +4.2% in the Middle Atlantic.