Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply in November — Evening Brief – 11.25.25 

Consumer confidence deteriorated significantly in November, with the Conference Board’s headline Consumer Confidence Index dropping 6.8 points to 88.7—its second-lowest reading since April. Both major components weakened: the Present Situation Index slid to 126.9, while the Expectations Index tumbled to 63.2, marking its tenth consecutive month below 80, a level historically associated with recession risk. 

“Consumer confidence tumbled in November,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, noting that all five components of the index “flagged or remained weak.” Consumers grew more downbeat on business conditions, labor market strength, and future income prospects. Expectations for household income showed the steepest deterioration after six months of strong readings. 

Confidence dipped across nearly all age and income groups, with only the lowest-income bracket (under $15K) showing a slight improvement—though it remains the least optimistic cohort overall. Individuals 55 and older were the most pessimistic. Confidence also fell across political affiliations, with independents showing the sharpest drop. 

Consumers’ write-in responses continued to cite inflation, prices, tariffs, politics, and the government shutdown as top concerns. Mentions of the labor market eased but remained elevated. 

Twelve-month inflation expectations stayed elevated, with the median rising to 4.8%. About half of consumers expect interest rates to increase, and optimism about future stock prices softened slightly from October’s levels. 

Consumers’ views of both their current and future financial situations deteriorated, with current financial sentiment falling to its lowest point since August 2024. More respondents believe the economy is already in recession, even as fewer expect a recession to be “very likely” in the next year. 

Overall, November’s report points to a consumer that is increasingly strained, more cautious, and increasingly convinced that economic conditions are likely to worsen in the months ahead.