Americans Grow More Cautious in November, UMich Survey Shows — Evening Brief – 11.21.25
U.S. consumer sentiment weakened in November, despite a modest improvement from the mid-month reading, according to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers released Friday. The headline Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 51.0 from the preliminary 50.3 but still declined from October’s 53.6, reflecting continued strain on household confidence.
“After the federal shutdown ended, sentiment lifted slightly from its mid-month reading,” said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. “However, consumers remain frustrated about the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.” Hsu noted that even as some immediate concerns eased, the broader mood remains subdued.
The report showed softness across both current assessments and forward-looking views. The Current Conditions Index fell to 51.1, down from the 52.3 mid-month estimate and sharply below October’s 58.6, indicating greater pessimism about personal finances and buying conditions. The Expectations Index, which tracks the economic outlook, edged up to 51.0 from the preliminary 49.0, but the improvement was modest and still consistent with a cautious consumer environment.
Inflation expectations offered a slightly more encouraging picture. One-year inflation expectations eased to 4.5%, down from the initial 4.7% reading and just below October’s 4.6%. Longer-term expectations—closely watched by the Federal Reserve—also softened. The five-year inflation outlook slipped to 3.4%, compared with an initial 3.6% estimate and 3.9% in October. While still elevated relative to pre-pandemic norms, the decline suggests that consumers see some signs of inflation pressures gradually cooling.
Overall, the revised November report underscores a consumer base still grappling with high prices, fading income growth, and economic uncertainty—even as inflation expectations continue to drift lower. The combination of weak sentiment and elevated, though easing, inflation expectations will remain a key factor for policymakers heading into the final months of the year.