Jobless Claims Fall; Manufacturing Outlook Strengthens — Evening Brief – 08.20.26
A trio of economic reports released Thursday painted a broadly encouraging picture of the U.S. economy, with jobless claims declining, regional manufacturing sentiment surging, and a closely watched forward-looking indicator turning positive for the first time in more than four years.
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended August 15 fell 6,000 to 206,000, below the 211,000 consensus and down from the prior week’s revised 212,000, according to the Department of Labor. The four-week moving average ticked up to 204,000. Continuing claims for the week ended August 8 rose to 1.799 million, slightly above the 1.790 million consensus, while the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.2%.
Separately, the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Index jumped to 47.4 in August from 41.4 in July, far surpassing the 25.0 consensus and marking its highest level since April 2021. Nearly 57% of firms reported increased activity, while new orders and shipments indexes softened slightly from July. Employment strengthened to 27.9 from 10.0, while prices paid and received both eased. Most notably, the six-month-ahead business activity outlook surged to 73.6, its highest reading in 43 years, alongside sharp gains in expectations for new orders and shipments.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index rose 0.2% month-over-month to 99.5 in July, beating the 0.1% consensus and marking its fourth increase in six months. The index’s six-month growth rate turned positive at 0.2%, reversing a 1.3% contraction in the prior six-month period.
“Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag on the overall index,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board.
“With the most recent gains, the LEI’s six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years, suggesting moderate growth ahead, Zabinska-La Monica.”
The Conference Board continues to forecast real GDP growth of 1.9% in both 2026 and 2027.