Labor Demand Cools, Confidence Edges Higher as Housing Gains Slow — Evening Brief – 03.31.26

The U.S. economy is sending mixed signals, with labor demand cooling, consumer sentiment stabilizing and housing price gains continuing to decelerate. 

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings fell to 6.882 million in February from a revised 7.240 million in January, roughly in line with expectations. The job openings rate slipped to 4.2% from 4.4%, reflecting softer demand across sectors including accommodation and food services and mining. 

Hiring activity also weakened. Total hires declined by nearly 500,000 to 4.8 million, pushing the hires rate down to 3.1%—the lowest level since April 2020. Meanwhile, layoffs and discharges held steady at 1.7 million, and the quits rate was unchanged at 1.9%, suggesting workers remain cautious but not retreating en masse. 

Consumer sentiment offered a partial offset. The The Conference Board reported its consumer confidence index rose to 91.8 in March, above expectations, driven by improved views of current conditions even as future expectations softened. 

“Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” said Dana Peterson. She added, “Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.” 

In housing, the S&P Cotality Case‑Shiller 20‑City Home Price Index rose 0.2% month‑over‑month on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, slowing from 0.5% previously. On an unadjusted basis, prices slipped 0.1% for a second month, while year‑over‑year gains moderated to 1.2% from 1.4%, missing the 1.4% consensus.  

“January’s results show home price gains continuing to cool,” said Nicholas Godec. “Price levels remain elevated, but the rate of appreciation has slowed materially.” 

Godec added that inflation-adjusted figures show “in real terms, home values have declined modestly over the past year,” as CPI rose 2.4% over the year ended January 2026, 1.5 percentage points above the National Index’s 0.9% gain. New York led annual price gains among the 20 cities with a 4.9% increase, followed by Chicago and Cleveland at 4.6% and 3.6%, respectively, while Tampa posted the lowest return at 2.5%.