U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise More Than Expected — Evening Brief – 11.20.25 

U.S. existing home sales rose more than expected in October as easing mortgage rates encouraged more buyers to return to the market, despite the disruptions caused by the government shutdown. Sales increased 1.2% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million, surpassing the consensus forecast of 4.08 million and up from 4.06 million in September, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Compared with a year earlier, sales were 1.7% higher. 

“Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist. 

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.25% in October, from 6.35% in September and 6.43% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac. The modest but meaningful retreat from previous highs provided relief to buyers who had been sidelined by affordability constraints. 

Regional performance was uneven across the country. The Midwest posted the strongest results, with sales surging 5.3%. The South, the nation’s largest home-selling region, recorded a more modest 0.5% increase, marking its best pace since February. In contrast, sales in the Northeast were unchanged from the prior month, while the West saw a 1.3% decline, weighed by persistently high home prices. 

Yun said first-time homebuyers are facing distinct regional challenges—limited inventory in the Northeast and elevated pricing pressures in the West—while conditions are more favorable in the Midwest and South due to greater availability of affordable housing. 

Home prices continued their steady upward trajectory. The median existing home price rose 2.1% year-over-year to $415,200. This marks another entry in a run of annual price increases stretching back to mid-2023. 

Inventory tightened slightly, falling 0.7% month-over-month to 1.52 million units, though it remains almost 11% higher than in October 2024 and near its highest level since mid-2020. Homes spent an average of 34 days on the market, the longest for any October since 2019. 

Still, Yun emphasized that a true return to pre-pandemic market balance will require “drastically larger supply” and deeper declines in mortgage rates—conditions not yet visible in current data. 

With buyers outnumbered by sellers by roughly 500,000 properties nationwide, according to a separate Redfin report, buyers are gaining leverage for concessions and price negotiations. But with affordability still stretched, and supply not expanding fast enough, the housing market’s path forward remains dependent on broader shifts in rates and inventory.