NY Fed Survey Shows Job-Finding Prospects Sink to Record Low in August — Evening Brief – 09.08.25  

U.S. consumers grew significantly more downbeat about the labor market in August, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, released Monday. The mean perceived probability of finding a job after losing one dropped 5.8 percentage points to 44.9%, the lowest reading since the series began in 2013. The decline was most pronounced among respondents with a high school education or less, highlighting growing inequality in labor market sentiment. 

At the same time, unemployment expectations—the mean probability that the jobless rate will be higher one year from now—rose to 39.1%, up 1.7 points and above the trailing 12-month average of 38.1%. The mean perceived odds of losing one’s job in the next year edged up to 14.5%, surpassing its long-run average, while the perceived probability of leaving a job voluntarily fell to 18.9%, suggesting workers feel less confident about switching employers. 

The report arrives on the heels of the weak August nonfarm payrolls release, which showed just 22,000 jobs created and a second consecutive monthly drop in full-time employment. Together, the data underscore mounting signs of fragility in the labor market. 

On the inflation front, expectations remained relatively anchored. Median one-year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.2%, while the three-year (3.0%) and five-year (2.9%) horizons were unchanged. Income expectations were steady, with median expected income growth at 2.9% for the second consecutive month, in line with its 12-month average. Median household spending expectations rose modestly to 5.0% from 4.9%, suggesting consumers still anticipate higher outlays despite weaker job security. 

Credit perceptions showed mixed signals. Compared with a year earlier, fewer households reported that credit conditions had worsened. However, looking ahead, fewer respondents expect easier access to credit in the coming year. Meanwhile, the mean probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose to 13.1%, slightly below the 12-month average of 13.5%. 

Overall, the August survey reflects a sharp deterioration in labor market sentiment, with record-low confidence in job-finding prospects, modestly higher unemployment expectations, and rising financial stress indicators. While inflation and income expectations remain stable, the weakening tone of employment perceptions highlights the growing risks that the slowdown in hiring is feeding directly into household confidence.