Jobless Claims Stay Low, Existing Home Sales Slide, Affordability Jumps — Evening Brief – 02.12.26
Initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 to 227,000 in the week ended February 7, undershooting the prior week’s revised 232,000 but landing above the 222,000 consensus, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week moving average rose to 219,500, up 7,000 from the prior week, hinting at a modest loss of momentum from historically low levels. Continuing claims climbed to 1.862M for the week ended January 31, above the 1.850M consensus, while the insured unemployment rate held at 1.2%, underscoring still tight but gradually normalizing labor conditions. On an unadjusted basis, actual initial claims under state programs declined by 4,555 to 248,397, bucking seasonal expectations for a small increase and reinforcing the picture of limited layoffs.
The housing data told a softer story. U.S. existing home sales dropped 8.4% M/M in January to a 3.91M seasonally adjusted annual rate, well below the 4.200M consensus and down from a revised 4.27M in December, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The median existing-home price eased to $396.8K from $405.4K in December but remained above the $393.4K level of January 2025, suggesting only modest price relief. “The decrease in sales is disappointing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, who noted that below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation may have distorted January’s read.
Affordability, however, took a clear step forward. The NAR Housing Affordability Index rose to 116.5 in January, up from 111.6 in December and marking the best reading since March 2022, as wage gains outpaced home price growth and mortgage rates eased versus a year ago.
Total housing inventory slipped 0.8% M/M to 1.22M units but was still 3.4% higher than a year earlier, leaving a 3.7‑month supply of unsold homes versus 3.5 months in both December and January 2025, evidence that supply remains a key constraint even as financing conditions improve.