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Evening Brief – 03.29.23

In private markets, determining which direction the wind is gusting can be taxing as these markets aren’t prone to the same daily twists as public markets. That’s why it’s critical to pay attention to relevant data as it becomes available.

A recent study by State Street of nearly 500 asset managers and private market investors found that private equity is expected to remain the top alternative asset class for new investments over the next two or three years, while 68% of institutional investors “will continue to grow private markets allocations in line with current targets.”

The data suggests most investors remain bullish on private markets, despite stark headwinds, including rising interest rates, sticky inflation prints, and a reset in stock valuations. In fact, there seems to be an increasing dialogue of private market investors questioning the opinion that a recession is inevitable or even likely in 2023.

Private equity investors have reason to remain optimistic, as the best returns have historically followed periods of economic turbulence. According to a report by Bain Consulting, investors have earned exceptional internal rates of return (IRR) in years following a recession. After the dot-com bubble, funds generated a median IRR of 25% in 2001, 40% in 2002, and 47% in 2003. Following the Global Financial Crisis in 2009, they posted an IRR of 24%.

Despite market gyrations, private markets have generated solid returns over the last 15 years, with many of the strongest years arising from recessionary periods. Institutional investors, therefore, will likely continue to allocate to private markets to gain exposure to what may be some of the best years to come.

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Inside The Story

About Joe Palmisano

Joe Palmisano is Editorial Director for Connect Money, where he brings nearly three decades experience of market insights as a financial journalist, analyst and senior portfolio manager for leading financial publications, advisory firms, and hedge funds. In his role as Editorial Director, Joe is responsible for the selection of content and creation of daily business news covering the financial markets, including Alternative Assets, Direct Investment and Financial Advisory services. Before joining Connect Money, Joe was a financial journalist for the Wall Street Journal, regularly publishing feature stories and trend pieces on the foreign exchange, global fixed income and equity markets. Joe parlayed his experience as a financial journalist into roles as a Senior Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager, writing daily and weekly market analysis and managing a FX and US equity portfolio. Joe was also a contributing writer for industry magazines and publications, including SFO Magazine and the CMT Association. Joe earned a B.S.B.A. in Finance from The American University. He holds the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation and is a member of the CFA Institute.