Workers Feel Secure in Current Jobs but Less Confident About Finding New Ones: NY Fed

Consumers are growing more cautious about their ability to find a new job if they were laid off, even as they feel more secure in the positions they already have, according to the New York Fed’s February Survey of Consumer Expectations. The mean perceived probability of finding a job within three months after a loss fell 1.6 percentage points to 44.0%, hovering just above the series low set in December 2025. 

At the same time, layoff fears are receding and workers are less inclined to quit. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months declined by 1.0 percentage point to 13.8%, slightly below its trailing 12‑month average. The mean probability of leaving a job voluntarily dropped 2.8 percentage points to 15.9%, a new series low. 

Household finances look steady beneath the surface. The median expected growth in household income held at 2.9%, matching its 12‑month average, while expected nominal household spending growth stayed at 4.9%, also in line with the recent trend. Consumers also feel better about their ability to manage debt: the average perceived probability of missing a minimum payment over the next three months fell 2.1 percentage points to 11.6%, the lowest since February 2024.  

Inflation expectations barely budged. Median one‑year-ahead inflation edged down 0.1 percentage point to 3.0%, and remained at 3.0% at both the three‑year and five‑year horizons, signaling a relatively anchored long‑term view.