US Leading Economic Index Slips in September

Despite some better economic signs, including the latest Consumer Price Index seeing the smallest annual increase since February 2021, The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has continued to decline for the seventh straight month.

The LEI slipped 0.5% month-over-month to 99 in September, a sharper decline than the -0.3% expected and -0.2% seen in August, according to The Conference Board report.

From March through September 2024, the LEI fell by 2.6%, more than the 2.2% drop in the previous six-month period.

“Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. “Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid.”

The index continued to signal uncertainty for the economic activity outlook and is consistent with The Conference Board’s expectation for moderate growth in late 2024 into early 2024, she added.

The Coincident Economic Index rose 0.1% to 112.9 versus 112.8 prior and revised from 112.7. Meanwhile, the Lagging Economic Index slipped 0.3% to 118.9 versus. 119.3 the prior month and revised from 119.5.