US Economic Activity “Little Changed”: Beige Book
Most districts reported little changes in overall U.S. economic activity in recent weeks, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book survey of regional contacts, compared to flat or declining activity in most districts in the previous survey. Only two of the twelve districts showed “modest growth.”
Most districts reported a decline in manufacturing activity. According to the report, the short-lived dockworkers walkout produced only small and temporary delays. The data was obtained on or before October 11, 2024.
Employment rose marginally throughout the reporting period. More than half of the districts reported slight or modest growth, while the rest showed little or no change. Worker turnover was low, and layoffs were minimal. Wages largely increased at a modest to moderate rate.
Inflation has slowed, with selling prices rising at a slight or modest rate in most districts, with isolated pockets of considerably higher costs, such as eggs and dairy, according to the Fed.
Commercial real estate markets were flat overall, although some districts saw increased activity from data center and infrastructure projects.
Housing inventory expanded across much of the U.S., and home values held steady or rose slightly. However, the uncertainty over mortgage rates kept some prospective homebuyers on the sidelines.
“Contacts across several industries noted more acute pressures from rising insurance and healthcare costs,” the report noted. Reports on consumer spending were mixed, with some Districts noting shifts in the composition of purchases, mostly toward less expensive alternatives. Moreover, most Districts reported “declining” manufacturing activity.”
Richmond and Chicago were the only districts to record growth. Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Minneapolis reported decreased activity during the six weeks covered by the research. Districts with flat, constant, or steady economic activity included Boston, New York, Cleveland, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco.