U.S. Consumers Trim Short-Term Inflation Outlook, Show Mixed Labor Market Sentiment 

U.S. consumers modestly lowered their short-term inflation expectations in October, even as their medium- and long-term outlooks held steady, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. 

Median one-year inflation expectations eased to 3.0% from 3.2% in September, marking the third decline in four months. Expectations for three- and five-year inflation were unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting consumers still see inflation stabilizing gradually rather than returning quickly to the Fed’s 2% target. 

Labor market views were more mixed. The perceived likelihood that the unemployment rate will be higher in a year rose for a third straight month, up 1.4 percentage points to 42.5%, reflecting growing caution about the economic outlook.  

At the same time, respondents grew slightly less concerned about losing their jobs: the perceived probability of job loss in the next 12 months edged down 0.9 point to 14.0%, just below its 12-month average. Workers also reported a lower likelihood of voluntarily quitting, with the expected quit rate dropping 1.9 points to 18.8%, signaling cooling job-hopping confidence. 

Households reported improved access to credit—reaching the most favorable levels since late 2024—as fewer respondents said it was harder to obtain credit compared with a year ago and more reported easier access. However, financial strain still lingers: the average probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months ticked up 0.5 point to 13.1%, near its 12-month average. 

The survey was conducted from October 1–31, 2025.