Steady CFO Outlook Masks Strain at Smaller Firms

U.S. finance chiefs remain broadly optimistic about the economy, but the outlook is diverging by company size as smaller firms face greater difficulty covering costs and financing growth, according to a survey released Wednesday.

The third-quarter CFO Survey, conducted by Duke University and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, collected responses from 517 financial executives between Aug. 17 and Sept. 4. Optimism about the U.S. economy averaged 60.3 on a 100-point scale, little changed from 60.6 in the previous quarter. Optimism about respondents’ own companies edged down to 69.7 from 70.7.

Those averages mask a widening divide. Optimism rose among large companies but fell among small businesses. Twenty percent of small firms reported financial constraints that kept them from covering costs or pursuing new opportunities, compared with about 10% of large firms.

Interest rates and the prospect of further increases ranked among executives’ leading concerns. A smaller share of firms plan capital investments over the next six months than in the first quarter. Among those without investment plans, most cited no need to expand capacity, while a growing share pointed to unfavorable financing or a need to preserve liquidity.

Expectations for sales and prices nonetheless increased. Respondents projected average revenue growth of 7.7% for 2026, up from 6.5% in the prior survey, and price growth of 5.3%, up from 4.7%. Their average forecast for real U.S. economic growth over the next four quarters was 1.9%, compared with 1.8% previously.

About 90% of firms expected demand over the next year to hold steady or improve. Only 12% reported leaving openings unfilled or laying off workers, though more than half of that group cited financial constraints.