Payrolls Benchmark Revision Deepens Weak Labor Market Picture
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has revised its preliminary benchmark revisions to net payroll growth for the 12 months ended in March 2025 down by 911,000, bringing the average monthly growth rate to just 70,000 from 147,000.
The revision follows last Friday’s disappointing payrolls report, which showed job growth nearly stalled in August and revealed that the economy shed jobs in June for the first time in 4½ years. Together, the figures represent a notable shift in the labor market narrative and are expected to fuel debate over whether the Federal Reserve should cut rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting rather than proceed with a smaller move.
The benchmark revision process is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which captures more than 95% of U.S. jobs. The final revision will be published in February 2026.
Recent years have seen increasingly large revisions, partly due to declining employer response rates and reliance on the BLS birth-death model, which estimates employment changes tied to business openings and closures.
