As commercial real estate capital markets continue to recalibrate amid sticky inflation, shifting rate expectations, and uneven economic growth, investors across the CRE debt spectrum are being forced to rethink how, and where, they deploy capital. From senior lending and structured credit to opportunistic strategies, the ability to underwrite risk, price volatility, and position portfolios for uncertainty has never been more critical.  

Joe Chickey, Managing Director, Head of Private Credit at Forum Investment Group, explores how investors are navigating today’s macro pressure points, the growing role of technology in real assets investing, and where opportunities are emerging across the CRE debt landscape. 

CM: How would you characterize the current state of the multifamily financing market as banks continue to tighten and consolidate?  

JC: In our view, the market is tight and getting tighter. Banks are still retrenching, which is supported by the Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey showing continued tightening in multifamily-secured CRE loans. That’s limiting refinancing options just as many borrowers face softer rents and higher costs. At the same time, non-bank lenders are stepping in: debt-fund lending volumes have risen meaningfully this year, reflecting a broader shift toward private capital. 

CM: Where are you seeing the largest capital gaps in the real estate stack today, particularly for multifamily?  

JC: While financing for new construction is challenging, we believe the biggest gaps are at the refinancing point. Many owners who “bought occupancy” with concessions are now facing weaker Net Operating Income (NOI) as loans mature-exactly where equity shortfalls show up first. This mirrors broader industry warnings that a wave of multifamily maturities will challenge sponsors with limited cash flow support or high leverage. At the same time, major private-credit platforms are raising large funds aimed squarely at these gaps. 

CM: Bridge lending has picked up significantly-what makes it such an attractive tool in the current rate environment?  

JC: The general perception is that interest rates remain elevated relative to recent history, with market participants anticipating potential rate reductions over time as monetary policу evolves. In this environment, many sponsors are hesitant to lock in long-term financing at current levels. Instead, they are increasingly turning to bridge financing, which provides shorter-term capital and greater flexibility. 

From our perspective, bridge financing can offer sponsors time to navigate near-term market conditions while broader financing and property fundamentals continue to develop. During this period, outcomes may include improvements at the property level-such as higher rental rates, reduced concessions, or improved occupancy-though these are not assured and vary by asset and market.  

This dynamic helps explain why industry reports have noted a meaningful increase in multifamily bridge lending activity, even as other sources of financing remain constrained. 

CM: For transitional or ground-up deals, what are the key risk considerations private lenders must manage when stepping in for banks?  

JC: In our view, key risks in the current environment include overestimating the pace and magnitude of rent recovery, underestimating the capital required to achieve stabilization, and aligning with sponsors who may have limited financial flexibility. As many markets continue to absorb deliveries from 2024 and 2025, lenders should remain conservative in their assumptions around concession burn-off periods and avoid underwriting based on rapid interest-rate declines or outsized rent growth.  

Consistent with this view, industry research highlights execution risk, potential cost overruns, and capital markets uncertainty as among the primary considerations for nonbank construction and transitional lenders. 

CM: Markets are pricing in rate cuts in early 2026-how is that shaping borrower behavior and your lending strategy at Forum?  

JC: We’re seeing borrowers often seeking flexibility rather than near-term exits, and many are structuring financing with an extended hold period in mind as market conditions continue to evolve. From our perspective, we do not underwrite investments based on expectations of future interest-rate movements. Instead, our lending strategy is grounded in realistic market fundamentals, property level cash flows, and financial metrics with a focus on our last-dollar basis. In our view, if rates decline in 2026, that’s upside, not the foundation of the deal-and that aligns with industry forecasts that expect gradual improvement, not a rapid reset. 

CM: How should advisors think about incorporating private real estate credit into diversified client portfolios?  

JC: From our perspective, we believe private real estate credit offers what many investors want today: income, subordination behind a sound equity cushion, and reduced volatility relative to equity. It can serve as a complement to traditional fixed income, particularly when spreads remain wide and banks are less active. Historically, private real estate credit has shown consistent resilience across market cycles and is increasingly recognized as a reliable, stable income component within diversified portfolios. 

CM: What do you see as the biggest opportunities for private credit lenders in multifamily over the next 12-24 months?  

JC: We believe we’re entering one of the most compelling lending environments in decades. Debt maturities, limited equity availability, and bank pullback are converging just as new construction starts fall sharply. We believe that has the potential to create opportunities to lend on high-quality assets at today’s values-often at discounts of 25% or more from peak pricing. Multifamily fundamentals remain resilient and supply is moderating, but capital needs are rising. 

CM: Looking ahead, do you expect private credit to remain a permanent fixture in multifamily financing, or will banks eventually reclaim lost ground?  

JC: It’s our belief that private credit is now a permanent part of the capital stack. We think banks will regain some activity over time, but structural constraints-regulation, consolidation, and balance-sheet pressure-aren’t going away. We’re already seeing evidence: banks are selling multifamily portfolios or exiting certain lending verticals entirely, while private credit platforms continue to scale. We believe that’s a secular shift, not a temporary one.