Fed Holds Rates Steady as Officials Stick to One-Cut Outlook

The Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% after its two-day meeting, matching market expectations. Stephen Miran again broke with the majority, voting for a 25-basis-point cut—his fifth consecutive dissent in favor of easing. 

Most officials kept to their earlier signal that the Fed would likely cut rates at least once more this year by a quarter point, but the projections highlight a divided committee. Seven of the 19 policymakers penciled in no reductions at all in 2026, while five anticipated cuts of 50 basis points or more, suggesting meaningful disagreement over how quickly to normalize policy. 

In its statement, the Fed said economic activity is “expanding at a solid pace,” with the unemployment rate “little changed,” signaling continued confidence in the labor market. At the same time, the committee flagged that the economic implications of the conflict in the Middle East remain “uncertain.”