Fed Governor Christopher Waller Gains Traction as Leading Candidate to Succeed Powell
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a frontrunner to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the U.S. central bank when Powell’s term expires in May 2026, according to Bloomberg News and sources familiar with the Trump administration’s vetting process.
Waller, a former research director at the St. Louis Fed and sitting governor since 2020, has impressed President Donald Trump’s advisers with his flexibility to base monetary policy on forward-looking forecasts rather than backward-looking data. His deep knowledge of the Federal Reserve’s internal workings and institutional structure is also seen as a major asset.
While Waller has met with Trump’s inner circle, he has not yet had a direct meeting with the president, who is expected to announce a replacement for outgoing Fed Governor Adriana Kugler by the end of the week. A decision on Powell’s successor is anticipated “soon,” according to comments made by Trump on Tuesday.
Just weeks ago, Kevin Hassett, former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair and current director of the National Economic Council, was considered the leading contender for the top Fed post. However, Waller’s reputation as a pragmatic, markets-aware economist with credibility among both hawks and doves has helped elevate his odds in political and financial circles. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh also remains under consideration, though the report suggests his prospects have faded somewhat.
Prediction market data from Kalshi currently shows Waller leading with a 49% probability of becoming the next Fed chair, followed by Hassett at 30% and Warsh at 24%.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a longtime Trump ally and another potential pick, is reportedly not being considered for the Fed chair role after expressing a desire to remain in his current position.
News of Waller’s fast-tracking through the ranks was interpreted by markets as a clear dovish signal. While the odds for rate cuts in 2025 remained largely unchanged—still reflecting expectations of one to two cuts by year-end—traders are now increasingly pricing in a more aggressive pace of easing in 2026.
