Commercial real estate is already sending a clear signal: capital is still available, but it is highly selective. Refinancing headwinds, tighter underwriting, and asset-level performance dispersion are creating clear winners and losers across property types and markets.  

According to Neil Axler, Managing Director of EisnerAmper‘s real estate services group, the market is forcing lenders and investors to take a harder look at asset quality, sponsorship strength, and the ability to adapt to structural change. 

CM: To start, how would you describe the overall tone of the commercial real estate market two months into 2026? 

NA: I would describe the overall tone of the commercial real estate market as a “wait-and-see” environment driven by ongoing uncertainty. 

CM: You’ve said “capital is available but disciplined.” Where are you seeing liquidity show up most consistently, and where is it still largely absent? 

NA: Liquidity is returning to the residential and industrial sectors but remains very limited in hospitality and office. Transactions are taking longer to close, investors are exercising greater caution, and outcomes increasingly depend on the credibility and strength of the players. 

CM: How are lenders and investors redefining “asset quality” in this environment—what characteristics really differentiate the winners from the losers 

NA: Residential is currently the hottest asset class, while industrial remains strong, though tariff uncertainty is continuing to slow activity. Strong real estate fundamentals are increasingly distinguishing the winners from the losers. 

CM: On the refinancing front, which property types or deal vintages are facing the greatest pressure as existing loans come due? 

NA: Office properties are facing the greatest pressure as existing loans mature, with many owners needing to contribute additional equity to refinance. Hospitality assets—and rent-stabilized residential properties—are also encountering significant challenges. 

CM: Where is distress most visible today, and how does it compare to what you expected heading into the year? 

NA: Distressed office assets are currently the most visible, along with certain Sunbelt residential properties, where overbuilding has led to softness—an outcome largely anticipated by the end of 2025.  We’re also beginning to see softening in the retail sector due to uncertainty and continued inflationary pressures. 

CM: Which sectors would you put in the “clear winners” bucket so far this year, and what is driving that outperformance? 

NA: Clear winners this year are market-rate multifamily properties in select markets, driven by growing housing demand. 

CM: Conversely, which sectors remain most challenged, and what would need to change for capital to re-engage meaningfully? 

NA: The office sector remains the most challenged, with landlords often forced to offer free rent and substantial tenant improvement allowances to secure tenants. The volatility in office REIT and real estate brokerage stocks is also notable. We’re seeing hospitality challenges and emerging challenges in the data center sector as well. Greater clarity and reduced uncertainty should help capital re-engage. 

CM: How has the bar risen for sponsors in 2026, and what characteristics are lenders prioritizing when deciding who still gets capital? 

NA: Lenders appear to be prioritizing strong sponsors, experienced developers, and solid real estate fundamentals. Weaker sponsors should expect significantly longer timelines to get deals completed. 

CM: Looking ahead to the rest of 2026, what single factor do you think will most determine who succeeds and who struggles in commercial real estate?  

NA: The key factor for success for the remainder of 2026 will be strong real estate fundamentals.