CREFC Sentiment Nears Record High as Capital Markets “Feel Genuinely Open”
CRE Finance Council (CREFC) reported another step up in confidence across commercial and multifamily real estate finance, as its Fourth-Quarter 2025 Board of Governors (BOG) Sentiment Index climbed 2.1% to 125.4, up from 122.8 in 3Q25 and just shy of the all-time high of 126.6 set a year earlier.
The survey, conducted January 5–9, 2026, marked the third consecutive quarterly increase, signaling sentiment has moved from recovery into consolidation at elevated levels. Respondents cited record expectations for borrower demand and the complete disappearance of negative sentiment around interest rates and the overall industry outlook.
Economic expectations improved meaningfully, with 37% expecting better U.S. economic performance over the next 12 months, the most optimistic reading since 4Q24, while just 14% expect deterioration. Federal policy sentiment strengthened as well, with 60% expecting positive impacts from legislative and regulatory actions and only 6% expecting adverse effects.
Confidence around rates remains strong. For the second consecutive quarter, 0% of respondents expect negative impacts from mortgage and cap rates, while 69% anticipate favorable conditions. Liquidity expectations also improved, with 69% expecting better market liquidity and just 3% anticipating deterioration.
At the same time, the survey underscores a bifurcated refinancing outlook. Of the roughly $200 billion in private-label CMBS maturing through 2026, 60% of respondents expect uneven outcomes—where institutional-quality assets refinance successfully while weaker properties face losses.
“This quarter’s results show a market that has moved from recovery to consolidation at elevated levels,” said Lisa Pendergast, president and CEO of CREFC. “The disappearance of negative sentiment on both rates and overall outlook—combined with record financing demand expectations—tells us capital markets feel genuinely open.”
“But our members are clear-eyed about what lies ahead,” she added. “The maturity wall will be a sorting mechanism, not a rising tide.”