The outlook for the U.S. economy among corporate financial leaders brightened in the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest CFO Survey conducted by Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. The rebound in sentiment was fueled by a notable decline in uncertainty, which dropped from the second-highest concern last quarter to seventh place in the current survey. 

“Likely, it is the fall in uncertainty that helped boost optimism in the third quarter,” said Sonya Ravindranath Waddell, vice president and economist with the Richmond Fed. “The return of optimism and GDP expectations to levels more in line with the beginning of 2024 is reassuring. But concern about tariffs is real and impactful for many CFOs in the survey.” 

For the third straight quarter, tariffs and trade policy topped the list of business worries, ahead of monetary policy and inflation. Companies citing tariffs as a key risk were consistently more pessimistic: their optimism index registered at 59.9 compared to 64.3 for other firms, and they forecasted weaker GDP growth (1.6% versus 2.0%), slower revenue and employment growth, and higher input costs. 

Quantitatively, CFOs said tariffs could significantly distort price trajectories. They projected that without tariffs, price growth in 2025 would be roughly 30% lower, and in 2026 about 25% lower. Nearly one in four firms also reported plans to reduce capital expenditures next year as a direct response to tariff headwinds.