After several cautious years, banking and capital markets M&A are shifting from pause to play. Deal conversations accelerated in the second half of 2025 as regulatory uncertainty eased, approval timelines shortened and boards grew more confident about pursuing long‑discussed combinations, according to Deloitte’s 2026 banking and capital markets M&A outlook. The question for 2026 is no longer if activity will return, but which institutions are best positioned to use M&A as a core growth strategy. 

Banking deal volumes jumped to 181 transactions in 2025, up 42.5% from 127 in 2024 and nearly double the post‑rate‑shock low of 96 in 2023. Aggregate bank deal value was slightly lower at $49.4 billion versus $51.8 billion in 2024, as average disclosed deal size fell to $650 million from a $909 million peak—but remained well above 2022–2023 levels. Super‑regional consolidation is expected to accelerate as clearer merger review standards and evolving tailoring rules reduce the friction of getting bigger. 

Investment management and securities saw 435 deals in 2025, up from 376 in 2024, with average disclosed value at $837 million, down from $1.1 billion, but still far above pre‑pandemic troughs. Fintech volumes rose modestly to 114 deals, yet average disclosed deal value surged to $1.92 billion, more than tripling 2024 levels, driven by a handful of large transactions such as Global Payments’ $24 billion acquisition of Worldpay. 

Looking ahead, Deloitte flags several structural supports: more predictable supervision, improved capital clarity (including relief from CECL “double‑count” distortions), and strategic imperatives around payments modernization, digital assets and AI that favor scale and selective acquisitions.  

In this environment, the firm argues, well‑prepared acquirers that have sharpened strategic priorities, mapped balance‑sheet capacity and pre‑planned integration “may be best positioned to move decisively as opportunities emerge.”