More than half of registered investment advisors (RIAs) are increasingly optimistic that inflation pressures will remain contained in the year ahead — a notable sentiment shift that aligns with recent macro data. According to Security Benefit’s latest survey with Greenwald Research, six in 10 advisors now expect inflation to stay under 3% over the next 12 months. This view tracks closely with the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s recent June PCE Price Index reading of 2.7%. 

Yet under the surface, the survey reveals an industry grappling with the mixed signals of moderating price pressures but persistent economic and geopolitical headwinds. The poll of 100 RIAs, conducted in May 2025, shows that nearly half (45%) of advisors believe there’s at least a moderate chance the U.S. economy could slip into recession within the next year — a risk that remains top of mind despite stronger-than-expected growth in Q2 GDP forecasts and the possibility of two interest rate cuts later this year. 

Advisors are also split on the political impact. Roughly 45% of RIAs said they feel more positive about the economy since President Trump’s return to office, while 38% feel more negative and 17% said their view hasn’t changed. Interestingly, this divide breaks along experience lines: 53% of advisors with more than 20 years in the industry report a more favorable outlook under Trump, compared with just 28% of advisors with three to 19 years of experience. This suggests seasoned RIAs may see more opportunity in a policy environment focused on tax relief and deregulation — while less experienced advisors may be more cautious about policy risks, trade tensions, and fiscal sustainability. 

Despite growing optimism about inflation, the report highlights how clients are recalibrating portfolios to hedge against downside surprises. Nearly half (48%) of RIAs said they’re seeing increased client allocations to international equities, signaling a desire for diversification beyond U.S. markets given the dollar’s recent weakness and global geopolitical uncertainty. Another 30% said they’re increasing exposure to U.S. equities, particularly in defensive sectors, while about one-third of RIAs have already made tactical allocation shifts for the year. 

Still, not all advisors are jumping to reposition. About 30% reported making no portfolio changes, signaling that some clients remain in “wait and see” mode — and emphasizing how varied investor risk tolerance has become in this mixed environment. 

One of the clearest trends is the spike in demand for downside protection solutions. Over half (53%) of RIAs said clients are increasingly interested in hedging products like fixed index annuities and structured notes, but only 27% said they’ve shifted assets into those investments — suggesting advisors are balancing client fears with the need to stay disciplined.  

As Mike Reidy, national sales manager for Security Benefit’s RIA Channel, put it: “The uptick in RIAs fielding interest from clients in downside protection solutions is a healthy sign. If economic pressures deepen and volatility spikes again, building downside protection into any diversification strategy is fundamental to ensuring asset protection in an uncertain market environment.” 

Beyond markets, the survey points to another driver of client anxiety: retirement income security. Social Security questions were the second-most-common client concern last quarter, after geopolitics. SSA data shows a 13% jump in claims year over year, suggesting more retirees are activating benefits amid uncertainty about the program’s future. That’s pushing many advisors to double down on conversations about guaranteed income, flexible annuity products, and strategies that lock in protection for aging clients. 

For RIAs, the takeaway is clear: despite a rosier inflation outlook, the political backdrop, labor market signals, and sticky recession fears are keeping clients on edge. This means more pressure — and opportunity — for advisors to position themselves as trusted guides on how to blend protection and growth, navigate the trade-offs of guaranteed income versus market exposure, and diversify portfolios that have become heavily U.S.-centric in recent years. 

As Reidy summed up, advisors are optimistic, but they know the next year won’t be easy. The ones who lean into this moment, communicate proactively, and help clients manage emotions and risk will be the ones who earn deeper trust and wallet share.