A new report from Yale University’s Budget Lab (TBL) finds that the 2025 tariff hikes are already having a significant economic impact, with 61%–80% of new duties passed through to consumer prices for core goods in June alone. The pass-through rate sits in the middle of prior academic estimates, but highlights a sharp short-term burden on consumers as the U.S. faces its highest statutory average tariff rates since the early 1930s. 

TBL estimates that $146 billion in net customs duties have been collected in 2025 through August, with the new tariffs contributing $88 billion in additional revenues—including $23 billion in August alone when effective rates reached 11%–12%. The report notes this revenue amounts to roughly 0.8% of GDP monthly, providing a meaningful measure of deficit reduction. 

But the consumer side is clearly feeling the strain: core goods PCE prices rose 1.5% in the first half of 2025, compared with just 0.3% in the same period last year. Categories showing the largest deviations from pre-2025 trends include video, audio, photographic, and information processing equipment (+5.7%), household appliances (+3.9%), and furniture (+3.1%). 

Interestingly, some outcomes diverge from expectations. While tariffs were expected to strengthen the U.S. dollar, TBL notes the opposite has occurred, with the DXY weaker and currencies of tariff-targeted countries appreciating. The analysis assumes the Fed will “look through” tariff-driven price increases in setting policy, but market expectations remain more uncertain. TBL cautions that these are only early effects, and the broader impact will continue to evolve as consumers, businesses, and policymakers adjust to the elevated tariff regime.