Moderating Inflation Gives Fed Room to Maneuver Ahead of Rate Decision 

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3%, below the 0.4% consensus and down from August’s 0.4% increase, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI advanced 3.0%, marginally below the 3.1% forecast and up slightly from August’s 2.9%. 

The CPI measure that the Federal Reserve monitors more closely—core CPI, which excludes food and energy—rose 0.2% in September (vs. 0.3% anticipated and 0.3% in August). The annual rate softened to 3.0% from 3.1% the prior month. 

With major economic releases delayed by the ongoing government shutdown, the Fed is navigating a uniquely opaque data landscape. The September inflation figure was nonetheless published on schedule to meet the Social Security Administration’s November 1 deadline for cost-of-living adjustment calculations. 

This inflation report is the last significant data point ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, where a 25 basis-point rate cut, bringing the benchmark range to 3.75%–4.00%, is widely expected. Although potential tariff-driven inflation remains on the horizon, policymakers appear more focused on a softening jobs market and slower hiring—a dynamic this CPI print helps ease.