U.S. Home Price Growth Cooling: Case-Shiller Index
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.3% in June, matching May’s decline, while the non-adjusted index was flat after rising 0.4% the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, the index rose just 2.1%, below the 2.6% consensus and slower than May’s 2.8% gain.
“June’s results mark the continuation of a decisive shift in the housing market, with national home prices rising just 1.9% year-over-year — the slowest pace since the summer of 2023,” said Nicholas Godec, head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The data highlighted a regional reversal of fortunes. New York (+7.0% Y/Y) and Chicago (+6.1% Y/Y) led all metro areas, while Tampa (-2.4%), Dallas (-1.0%), and Phoenix (-0.1%) saw declines. “This represents a complete reversal of pandemic-era patterns, where traditional industrial centers now outpace former darlings like Phoenix, Tampa, and Dallas,” Godec noted.
The slowdown comes as mortgage rates remain above 6.5%, limiting affordability despite recent wage gains. Builders have leaned heavily on incentives—recorded at a post-pandemic high in July—to sustain sales, but the Case-Shiller data show pricing momentum is fading.