
Fannie Mae Sees Mortgage Rates Easing Below 6% by 2026
Mortgage rates are projected to gradually decline over the next two years, ending 2025 at 6.4% and 2026 at 5.9%, according to the latest September 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The outlook points to a modest housing recovery, with combined new and existing home sales expected to reach 4.72 million in 2025 before climbing to 5.16 million in 2026.
On the financing side, single-family mortgage originations are forecast at $1.85 trillion in 2025 and $2.32 trillion in 2026, driven in part by falling rates. The refinance share is expected to rise from 26% in 2025 to 35% in 2026, as homeowners respond to lower borrowing costs and improved affordability.